Elliott Market Waves

Nasdaq corrective pattern seems to be done

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Hello there.
Let's talk about irregular correction ABC's. An irregular correction is when the "b" wave tops higher then previous wave "a" high. This is a perfect bull trap because when we think the market will move higher, he starts correcting on a tremendous "c" wave down.
Now, "c" waves usually respects certain Fibonacci ratios based on "a" price movement. It can be:
c = a
c = 1,618*a
c = 2,618*a
With that in mind and assuming that the nasdaq is making an irregular corrective abc, with a little math c = 1,618*a=75,07 points. the market has done 76,4... pretty close.

Best to your trading
PH

Dow Transportation and Nasdaq 100 update

Hi friends. Had to change my count for a little more bear view. The "respectable" channel was seriously violated, and for now i anticipate at least one more leg down.
Don't get fooled. Primary trend is still up so i won't recommend any kind of short positions in this market. I think 38% fibo around 62,50 may be a sweet spot to start taking long positions again.
Same goes to Nasdaq. If my wave degrees were correct we should resume the trend shortly. If not, then blue is rose and rose is yellow, meaning that we could hit the 50 or the 61,8 fibo next week.

Best to your trading
PH

SPX daily update

Todays action seems like a small correction wave since the yesterday lows. So at least i expected one test until 96x's-97x's.

SPX daily update

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

After some hard weeks, finally the wave patterns were more clear and suggest one flat wave in this wave B.
If you like this chart: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAPt-zBZht5M_SlhWLiDH8hyphenhyphenHN_s5Y4pB2NjsOaLcMaSIIlWoIvu_C7ulPpVHYcEhay5W-SxYvJWGRQP0__xJ3E5RKJh7mUha9F-yoiOdzXGL4q_voDXzScsvtWX0npTTpTUodY285OOcM/s1600-h/spx-1.jpg it's possible the top were already made at 1018. However, for now i will prefer count this wave as "B" (the label suggests a corrective wave) and waiting for one last wave "C" to finished this rally since the March lows.

SPX daily update

Monday, August 17, 2009

Since several weeks SPX is inside various corrective combinations so the patterns are not clear. Despite this my primary count (new medium term count) shows SPX is doing a final wave of this bear market labelling an ending diagonal. My alternative count suggests SPX still inside wave B doing a double zig zag (old medium term count).

P.S. Until the end of the month i will be on vacation but i will try update all days the SPX count. Best to you trading.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Friday, August 14, 2009

No time for any chart but we are in the same swamp as the previous days (weeks) so a lot of different readings are still possible. The diferent valid counts are:
Wave B doing double zig zag (old count in the big picture); wave b of v of v (last count in the big picture); possible triangle.

Hello friends.

In the sequence of my weekend update i leave you the Dow transportation index chart. I think rose wave 4 is done and that we have started a final sequence of waves. Plus, there's a pretty nice channel that deserves "maximum respecto" ;)

Best to you trading
PH

SPX daily update

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Today i decided change all my counts and today makes much sense the medium and short time frame.

At short term i used this count of last week: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF6OJAUrtDIFIeZuqledSuDd0H0PL9-wC06kO3l2iS-f8ab1DV0dlWZfYbnbeph9hw_duKrgCSJu4wX4YW4Q6xkDy5T8S4N-M1BpWTGQAn-MiUmGPmDRrvAnIhyphenhyphen1VDP_c9sw2wf__Czufd/s1600-h/spx_bull.jpg.

I would like to see some discussion about my changes and know your view of the markets.