What Does a Fractal Look Like?
Whith this uptrend i must change my count and see this movement as wave B of ii.
I have two possible counts for DAX but, as i expect one minor wave iv for spx, i prefer the similar count for DAX. Despite this, i expect some support in the 3940 area due is the 50 % of the retracement.
Monday, March 30, 2009
I changed a little the mayor wave 1 to put the minor wave "e" on the struture of this wave. I short term, SPX is doing the wave "a" that can be finished in the 770's, to close the last gap. After this, i expected one corrective wave (wave "b") followed by another pullback that can finished between the 50 and 62 % of Fibonacci retracement. This area is an important support for SPX and i expect some rebound after this test.
Need more data to understand this movement but i have some alternatives. Or SPX made a failed wave "e" and is already on mayor wave ii or is doing one ending diagonal. At this point i not sure which one is better count.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Another choppy session that didn't brings nothing new to my Elliott count. So, i don't change my last update. Next week i expect a new high and then a good pullback. A great weeekend for all.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Choppy session and truly don't expect that. To my last count still valid, tomorrow SPX must go gap up or start the session with strain to break the 820-840 area. As today, i don't see any impulsive waves, maybe this wave v of 1 can finished like an ending diagonal or some kind of wedge.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
SPX complete 5 waves and maybe this mayor wave "a" or "1" is complete. However the last half hour to close SPX make me think about one extention on the wave v of mayor "a" or "1". So far the market is very bullish so the odds are better on the bullish case. If we broke today highs maybe this uptrend close on 880-900 points. If this is already the mayor wave "b" or "2" i still think the 750 is the final target.
New highs in SPX and DAX, the ideal setup to finished this uptrend.
We are living historical times and therefore we must take all the advantage we can from these moments. The actual uptrend have contributed to split up Elliotticians opinion about the following path. According to the majority, they believe we are already living an historical rally, but there are few of us that still consider we are heading towards new minimums.
In order to achieve a rich and fair debate, i let all these thoughts for your judgment.
Personally, although yesterday i pointed out the end of wave V, i prefer the new minimums approach. The motives are unequivocal when you see the chart Nº3. Despite all that, the actual probabilities support bull counts, for that reason the next wave development should enlighten us whether we reach new minimums or not.
In short term i think it's missing one last wave to finished this countertrend.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Choppy session where the wave (iv) of iii of v made a double zig zag and now the wave (v) is doing some kind of ending diagonal or wedge. I expect more choppynes due SPX will do the wave iv of v after close the wave iii of v (don't sure if already had finished).
Still have some problems with my computer but i'm here to made the SPX update.
With those new highs during the morning, showed that the bull countertrend count was incomplete. So, since March SPX is in the Primary wave 2. My target for this wave will be between 38 and 50 % of Fibonacci retracement during, at least 6 months. However, this first minor wave can finished during this week, between the 84x's and 87x's, as you can see in the pictures.
Monday, March 23, 2009
I count 5 waves since Friday's lows so SPX may had finished this wave. Enter short again with stop in the new highs.
I don't have any bullish count for DAX. My prefer count for it is the same: ending diagonal triangle. Any one can put a bull case for DAX? I appreciate that.
During this weekend i had several problems with my computer. Due to this i don't made my updates. About the spx, i don't have more doubts that had already finished the minor v. This new upside made me choose the bullish case due i count the thursday and friday movement like an abc. So, i expect new highs soon. My prefer count says that spx is on minute wave iv or is already on minute wave v of minor 1.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Finally the bears had a great day. I expect a gap down in next monday and the continuation of this new trend. For all, i wish a great weekend and keep smiling :).
Friday, March 20, 2009
Impulsive wave in this last movement :)).
Choppy session and i still can't see impulsive movement in this correction.
The big picture is choppy and i haven't time to see it better (only during the weekend) but it looks, since yesterday, a potencial impulsive movement. However, this rally, since the lows, still not seem impulsive.
Currently i have two counts that can be valid. Why two different counts? Just because this last downtrend seems more a little correction of this large upside than the beginning of a new trend (see 10 minutes chart). Nevertheless, the inversion trends, sometimes, began with some choppy action. So keep the eyes on the trend chanel and try to understand if the movement is impulsive or corrective. Until now i can only see a simple corrective movement.
Due to this, if SPX made another higher high i will admit that already has began the Primary wave 2. The last chart are the potential trend lines which can stop this "bull(dog)" movement.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Difficult days to understand where we are. I'm in a fight to see clearly if DAx is already on minor wave v. I prefer the DAX cash count but it's possible that minor v has began (Cfd's count). If DAX is not in the minor wave v, it miss only one minor wave up to finished.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Today i prefer to count the spx cash. Here we can see clearly that is missing the wave v of C. When i began to see an impulsive movement during the afternoon i suspected that was something wrong. But when i saw DAX in a corrective moviment i reenter short until my last intraday update. I think this wave v of C can go next to the 800's but with the RSI divergence i don't believe that can overcome this resistence.
I have serious doubts if we are already in the minor wave v. Maybe will be finished today :((.
I don't like this movement. Close part of my shorts to see what happens.