What Does a Fractal Look Like?

What Does a Fractal Look Like? And What Does It Have to Do with the Stock Market? By Elliott Wave International Although Ralph N. Elliott came to his conclusions 50 years before the new science of fractals blossomed, he took a step that current observers of natural processes have yet to take. He explained not only that the progress of the market was fractal in nature but discovered and described the component patterns. Find out more about the stock market and fractals in this excerpt. Read more.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Monday, August 31, 2009






Some options to play. Currently i don't have time to explain my charts.

P.S. In the charts A is B (my mistake).

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Good Weekend

Sunday, August 30, 2009


The clock is beating tic tac for my last holiday day and I have to be prepared for the next wave...For now the wave seems to be controlled since the last update is still my primary count. Good weekend for all and enjoy the sun and the waves as i did this morning :))).

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Friday, August 28, 2009


Possible pattern for the end of P2. For now it's time to enjoy the last days of my holidays.

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SPX daily update

Thursday, August 27, 2009


Finally wave iv finished today and SPX began wave v ( i of v completed and close at ii of v). Latter i will show my charts.

EDIT: I expect new highs tomorrow or monday and then we will see what happens... True blood or only another simple correction.

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DAX daily update


DAX is also doing a wave iv (see my last SPX update), so i expect new highs to finished this wave since the 5165 points.

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SPX daily update


After this session the waves were more clear and suggest SPX is doing wave iv since monday. So i expect at least one more high to finished this wave i of C (conservative count) or C of Z of P2 (Infernal count).

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Wednesday, August 26, 2009


Another alternative count, SPX made a triangle and finished wave iv this morning.

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Why are we smacking our heads?

The Nasdaq100, for many people one of the leaders of the markets, has serious resistance on 1630 area. In the weekly chart you can see how many times that value was a key value in the past.


Lets take a closer look:

For me, this is good news ;). We beat the resistance and is now acting as support.

Best to your trading
PH

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Dow and Nas100 Daily update



I think those markets will make new highs tomorrow or Thursday. Closing long positions there, may be a good strategy. After that, at least a little correction is expected. P2 could be ending too, so be careful.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX daily update


Chart update and some considerations.

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Transportation update

Tuesday, August 25, 2009


Just a little update of the transportation friends.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX daily update


Change a little my primary count but after this wave iv again i expect new highs.

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DAX daily update


Wave iv of wave i of C or wave iv of C of P2 underway.

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SPX daily update

Monday, August 24, 2009





As everybody know, until August 31 i'm on vacation and enjoy some beautiful days in Algarve. Therefore, don't be surprise if i miss any dialy or intraday update.

Despite this SPX is at his final wave C of this bear market rally and at short time is doing wave iii of wave C. My primary count suggest SPX may do 11xx's and P3 may began at middle of September (see my Table "Fibonacci ratios"). For now is early to short SPX and i will be wainting the end of wave iv of C to began short.

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Friday, August 21, 2009


I think this is the count. The strength of the market suggests a blue wave 3 and yesterdays corrective movement suggests another irregular correction for blue wave 2 with pink "a"="b".

Best to your trading
PH

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Testing the highs


In the sequence of previous post, here it is. Channel broken and highs being tested, that should origin a little pullback and then... rock and roll baby.

Best to your trading
PH

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Be very careful for tomorrow!


Hello friends. Yesterday's movement was indeed impulsive, and after that (almost 38,2%) correction, we should be impulsing as well. The thing is that today's movement was series of overlapped waves that makes absolutely no sense for who's expecting a third wave, usually the strongest of the impulsive movement.
Looking for confirmation on the other indexes, i was confronted with a Dow and a Nasdaq that did not brake out a descending channel from the highs. Also Nikkei 225 appears to be resuming the down correction movement with tranquility...
I made an alternative count and covered my long positions for now, better a small profit then a loss. It's a 50/50 scenario and that gives me no comfort. Confirmation comes with those channels broken and with the highs being tested. If this more bear count comes to reality, we should be smelling SPX 960 in a blink of an eye. Sorry for the testament.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX 10 min

Thursday, August 20, 2009


Hi friends.

I've been monitoring spx in detail to look for a sweet spot to enter with my last 25% position. Did not work for half a point or something. Once the job is done, i decided to post it here. For now, everything seems to align with our recent posts. Yesterday's move looks really impulsive.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX daily update


Appears wave B already finished today in cfd's charts.
Now, C waves usually respects certain Fibonacci ratios based on A price movement. With that in mind the final targets for this final wave C of Z can be:
Wave C of Z = 0.618*a = 1070 points;
Wave C of Z = a = 1127 points;
Wave C of Z = 1.618*a = 1218 points.

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Nasdaq corrective pattern seems to be done

Wednesday, August 19, 2009


Hello there.
Let's talk about irregular correction ABC's. An irregular correction is when the "b" wave tops higher then previous wave "a" high. This is a perfect bull trap because when we think the market will move higher, he starts correcting on a tremendous "c" wave down.
Now, "c" waves usually respects certain Fibonacci ratios based on "a" price movement. It can be:
c = a
c = 1,618*a
c = 2,618*a
With that in mind and assuming that the nasdaq is making an irregular corrective abc, with a little math c = 1,618*a=75,07 points. the market has done 76,4... pretty close.

Best to your trading
PH

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Dow Transportation and Nasdaq 100 update



Hi friends. Had to change my count for a little more bear view. The "respectable" channel was seriously violated, and for now i anticipate at least one more leg down.
Don't get fooled. Primary trend is still up so i won't recommend any kind of short positions in this market. I think 38% fibo around 62,50 may be a sweet spot to start taking long positions again.
Same goes to Nasdaq. If my wave degrees were correct we should resume the trend shortly. If not, then blue is rose and rose is yellow, meaning that we could hit the 50 or the 61,8 fibo next week.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX daily update


Todays action seems like a small correction wave since the yesterday lows. So at least i expected one test until 96x's-97x's.

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SPX daily update

Tuesday, August 18, 2009


After some hard weeks, finally the wave patterns were more clear and suggest one flat wave in this wave B.
If you like this chart: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_XX1K8deKkBE/SoSBqkNVmII/AAAAAAAABwc/fR9JKagL5sQ/s1600-h/spx-1.jpg it's possible the top were already made at 1018. However, for now i will prefer count this wave as "B" (the label suggests a corrective wave) and waiting for one last wave "C" to finished this rally since the March lows.

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SPX daily update

Monday, August 17, 2009



Since several weeks SPX is inside various corrective combinations so the patterns are not clear. Despite this my primary count (new medium term count) shows SPX is doing a final wave of this bear market labelling an ending diagonal. My alternative count suggests SPX still inside wave B doing a double zig zag (old medium term count).

P.S. Until the end of the month i will be on vacation but i will try update all days the SPX count. Best to you trading.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Friday, August 14, 2009

No time for any chart but we are in the same swamp as the previous days (weeks) so a lot of different readings are still possible. The diferent valid counts are:
Wave B doing double zig zag (old count in the big picture); wave b of v of v (last count in the big picture); possible triangle.

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Hello friends.

In the sequence of my weekend update i leave you the Dow transportation index chart. I think rose wave 4 is done and that we have started a final sequence of waves. Plus, there's a pretty nice channel that deserves "maximum respecto" ;)

Best to you trading
PH

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SPX daily update

Thursday, August 13, 2009





Today i decided change all my counts and today makes much sense the medium and short time frame.

At short term i used this count of last week: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_XX1K8deKkBE/SoDZaFaQMNI/AAAAAAAABuw/TgVd33snzoA/s1600-h/spx_bull.jpg.

I would like to see some discussion about my changes and know your view of the markets.

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SPX intraday update (Part 2)



Just follow Nelly cause she knows where the market will go!!

P.S. Just to relax.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)


We are in the same swamp as the previous days (weeks) so a lot of different readings are still possible.

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SPX daily update


As SPX didn't made new highs the last change for the bears is a double zig zag formation in this wave ii or B.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Wednesday, August 12, 2009



The Million Dollar Question....WTF SPX is doing?????

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)


My two cents for DAX.

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DAX daily update


Triangle or another different pattern? For now is better control the trend line (green line) and see what happens. Despite my doubts this is my primary count and the triagle the alternative.

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SPX daily update


These last 2 weeks were label by total messy waves. For now only can wish less corrective combinations. Despite all alternative counts i prefer to count the beginning of this wave ii or b with the last higher high (1017). So i expect at least one week of correction until the 95x's.

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DAX intraday update (Part 2)

Tuesday, August 11, 2009


Yes my primary count was wrong. Despite this i still have doudts were wave i or A finished.

P.S. Similar count for SPX.

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)


If my primary count for SPX and DAX is correct today we must have a rally to do the wave "iii" of "v" of "i" or "a".

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SPX daily update


Today i had some time to recount this wave "i" or "a" and done some adaptations on PH wave count (thanks my friend). The alternative counts were showed last night: http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/2009/08/spx-daily-update_10.html (option 3 died).

P.S. My preferential alternative count order is: option 2; option 4 and at last option 1.

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SPX intraday update (Part 2)

Monday, August 10, 2009


Some trend lines and resistence/support areas to control.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)


At short time the waves still messy and for now i will count this downside as abc correction.

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SPX daily update (by PHneutral)

Hello friends.
In complement of my friend's work i will leave my view of the markets.

Fridays movement was an impulse up (and some correction) and that make me suspect that this market has a little bit more to go. We can't be correcting impulsing up, we just can´t. In my charts in try to justify this sentence in Friday's weakest of the indicies, the Nasdaq.

In resume I believe that we can go higher in direction of 1040/1050 on SPX and that we can be developing an extended blue wave 5. If we start correcting... oh well, a new count is always possible even against the probabilities. Can´t wait for Monday :)

Best to your trading.
PH




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Disclaimer

The opinions listed on this blog are of the author only, and shall not be deemed as financial advice, or any other sort of advice. All visitors to the blog should do their own research before making any decisions. This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses any one might sustain from the content provided. Author is not a registered financial advisor. Author does not engage in dispensing financial advice.

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