What Does a Fractal Look Like?
Choppy session sugesting SPX is doing some kind of triagle in cfd's and wedge in the cash (for me SPX is still doing the wave iv of v).
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Hi there. In the sequence of yesterdays talking, nothing changes thought. Markets were chopping around and no decisive movement was made.
If our count is correct we could have finished blue wave 4 today. A decisive movement is expected tomorrow.
Best to your trading.
PS: Welcome back to your house my friend ;)
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Hello my friends i'm back from my first holiday period. Amazing 9 days visiting the following towns in Croatia: Split, Brac, Vis, Trogir, Sibenik, Plitvice and Zagreb. I recommend you all a trip to Croatia.
There are no words to describe what i've seen however i leave some of my memories...
Hello friends. Really hard time today counting those waves and extrapolating some conclusions.
Yesterday the ending diagonal was my favorite scenario. But after today I think this market has a little more to go. The reason (besides the impulsive movement i have talked yesterday) is price movement. It is common for both waves 2 and 4 to have approximately the same price movement.
With this count, blue and rose waves 2 and 4 have approximately the same price movement. If this is right we should go near 1000 points in conclusion of red wave 1. If not, we finished red 1 and we are retracing to 941 minimum.
PS: I'm out and only short if index tests 1000 points area. It's not really safe to take any positions at this time. Negative divergences don't let me take the long side and this count don't let me take the short one.
Best to your trading
Monday, July 27, 2009
Hello there. My favorite count puts blue 5 ending in near 1000 points, as you can see in one of the charts.
On the other side, I have some doubts looking at the 10 min chart. I can see some impulsive movement that I should not be able to see. For that reason, I made an alternative count that brings the extended blue wave 5 scenario to the table.
My favorite count still is the one of the ending diagonal, since i don't trust 10 min time frame for Elliot wave counting. I use it to confirm my count but that wont happened today.
Charts today are from 4 hour CFD's. My provider is having some problems with the cash ones.
Lets see how this thing plays out.
Best to your trading
Friday, July 24, 2009
Hi there. In this moment I'm on vacations ans I don't have the counting software with me so I won't leave a chart this time.
Still nothing changes, and we need to see the development of this blue wave 5. If there is another big push higher then we are in rose 3 of blue 5. If not and waves start overlapping again, then we must consider that rose 5 of blue 5 is in play and we are finishing red 1.
Best to your trading.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Hello! Waves are overlapping. Examining the CFD's 10 min chart we can see series of abc´s that suggests a blue 5 developing in ending diagonal. This is consistent with the 956 false break scenario. One more push higher and market should retrace for a red wave 2.
Have a good trading day.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Hi again. Market retraces as expected and gave us new long opportunities. I'm not sure if it's going retrace a little more but it is fairly possible. I change my count a bit but the new one leads to the same place. Think this market should move higher tomorrow or Thursday. Little Patience.
Still not reasonably satisfied with the count but I think we are on a not ended impulsive move for sure.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Hello friends, phneutral here.
I think that index is going to test or false break 956 points before any significant pullback.
Count, rising wedge formation and RSI divergence suggests that.
Think best strategy may be waiting for that pullback before entering long. On short term perspective, in this moment its not safe to be long in this market.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Today I will leave on holidays to Croatia, until 29th July so I wish you all excellent trading weeks until my return. However, during my absence, this "home" will have a special guest with daily updates through my great friend Ph Neutral, who is also an excellent ellottitian. Until my return enjoy some pictures from Croatia.
P.S - See my last SPX and DAX updates below this poster.
At short term looks (cash chart) wave iv is still underway but as i sayed at July 16 this principal wave (i or a) may will finish at 95x's. If this occurs the wave ii or b may will do 50 % Fibonacci retracement and the gap between 905-912 will not filled.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Finally weekend... :))))))) During this weekend i'll update my SPX and DAX charts, but until now i don't see any reason to change my counts (today i don't have any doubts that SPX is at wave iv rose as i showed in my last update).
Friday, July 17, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
These last two days remember me the beginning of wave P2 (in March), so for now, we must respect the bull and follow the trend (or if you are bear like me stay out). Due this day i made some changes in my last update. Hope everbody had survived this short squeeze and are all right.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Huge short squeeze and the bull is back! Until the sessions end i didn't see any bearish signs. Latter i will do my updates.
New trend started (wave Z) so new highs will be made during the next weeks. In short term i still don't see any bearish signs.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Possible future patterns in short term for SPX.
My primary count SPX is doing a triangle and then will make one last impulsive wave. Alternative counts are: (a) bearish wedge or ending diagonal; (b) began now wave iii of this last impulsive wave.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Since the lows of this morning both indices maybe are doing a bearish wedge. Latter i show my charts for the short term.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Time to rest and stay with family. Hope everybody also rest and enjoy the weekend.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Until new lows i will retain my last updates.
Today i stay a little more bearish than yesterday after the markets close. The big picture is still uncertainty but today i will prevail the bear count.
At short term seems for the bear case it's missing wave c to complete this (small) rebound. For the bull case maybe is possible a good rally For now i prefer the bear case.