What Does a Fractal Look Like?

What Does a Fractal Look Like? And What Does It Have to Do with the Stock Market? By Elliott Wave International Although Ralph N. Elliott came to his conclusions 50 years before the new science of fractals blossomed, he took a step that current observers of natural processes have yet to take. He explained not only that the progress of the market was fractal in nature but discovered and described the component patterns. Find out more about the stock market and fractals in this excerpt. Read more.

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

Friday, July 31, 2009


I don't like these corrective combinations but for now it's my primary count.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Choppy session sugesting SPX is doing some kind of triagle in cfd's and wedge in the cash (for me SPX is still doing the wave iv of v).

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SPX daily update


Today SPX made part of wave v of i or a. I will expect one more higher high, for tomorrow (maybe until 1000-1005), and then the odds suggests the begining of wave ii or b until the 91x's-94x's.

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)

Thursday, July 30, 2009

EDIT DAX's CHARTS (cash and cfd's):


Seems it's missing one last wave to finished this first wave "i" or "a". DAX cash needs another higher high so maybe only tomorrow this wave my end.

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SPX Wednesday daily update




Hi there. In the sequence of yesterdays talking, nothing changes thought. Markets were chopping around and no decisive movement was made.
If our count is correct we could have finished blue wave 4 today. A decisive movement is expected tomorrow.

Best to your trading.
PH

PS: Welcome back to your house my friend ;)

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Back from Holiday Time

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Hello my friends i'm back from my first holiday period. Amazing 9 days visiting the following towns in Croatia: Split, Brac, Vis, Trogir, Sibenik, Plitvice and Zagreb. I recommend you all a trip to Croatia.
There are no words to describe what i've seen however i leave some of my memories...





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SPX daily update


Hello friends. Really hard time today counting those waves and extrapolating some conclusions.

Yesterday the ending diagonal was my favorite scenario. But after today I think this market has a little more to go. The reason (besides the impulsive movement i have talked yesterday) is price movement. It is common for both waves 2 and 4 to have approximately the same price movement.

With this count, blue and rose waves 2 and 4 have approximately the same price movement. If this is right we should go near 1000 points in conclusion of red wave 1. If not, we finished red 1 and we are retracing to 941 minimum.

PS: I'm out and only short if index tests 1000 points area. It's not really safe to take any positions at this time. Negative divergences don't let me take the long side and this count don't let me take the short one.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX monday daily update

Monday, July 27, 2009



Hello there. My favorite count puts blue 5 ending in near 1000 points, as you can see in one of the charts.
On the other side, I have some doubts looking at the 10 min chart. I can see some impulsive movement that I should not be able to see. For that reason, I made an alternative count that brings the extended blue wave 5 scenario to the table.
My favorite count still is the one of the ending diagonal, since i don't trust 10 min time frame for Elliot wave counting. I use it to confirm my count but that wont happened today.
Charts today are from 4 hour CFD's. My provider is having some problems with the cash ones.
Lets see how this thing plays out.

Best to your trading
PH

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SPX daily update

Friday, July 24, 2009

Hi there. In this moment I'm on vacations ans I don't have the counting software with me so I won't leave a chart this time.

Still nothing changes, and we need to see the development of this blue wave 5. If there is another big push higher then we are in rose 3 of blue 5. If not and waves start overlapping again, then we must consider that rose 5 of blue 5 is in play and we are finishing red 1.

Best to your trading.
PH

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SPX daily update

Thursday, July 23, 2009


What seems to be an ending diagonal is now a blue wave 5 developing in full power...

I think that 1000 points will be attacked next week in conclusion of red wave 1.

Best to your trading.
PH

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My view from 666 low


This is my count from 666 low. I made it yesterday since i was about 3 months away from the markets. I'm a very simple counter, the simplest explanation tends to be the most correct.

Regards
PH

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Wednesday daily SPX update


Hello! Waves are overlapping. Examining the CFD's 10 min chart we can see series of abc´s that suggests a blue 5 developing in ending diagonal. This is consistent with the 956 false break scenario. One more push higher and market should retrace for a red wave 2.

Have a good trading day.
PH

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SPX daily update

Wednesday, July 22, 2009


Hi again. Market retraces as expected and gave us new long opportunities. I'm not sure if it's going retrace a little more but it is fairly possible. I change my count a bit but the new one leads to the same place. Think this market should move higher tomorrow or Thursday. Little Patience.
Still not reasonably satisfied with the count but I think we are on a not ended impulsive move for sure.

Best regards
PH

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SPX daily update

Tuesday, July 21, 2009


Hello friends, phneutral here.

I think that index is going to test or false break 956 points before any significant pullback.

Count, rising wedge formation and RSI divergence suggests that.

Think best strategy may be waiting for that pullback before entering long. On short term perspective, in this moment its not safe to be long in this market.

Best regards
PH

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Holidays Time

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Today I will leave on holidays to Croatia, until 29th July so I wish you all excellent trading weeks until my return. However, during my absence, this "home" will have a special guest with daily updates through my great friend Ph Neutral, who is also an excellent ellottitian. Until my return enjoy some pictures from Croatia.
P.S - See my last SPX and DAX updates below this poster.

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DAX daily update


Looks like DAX is doing, also as SPX, in this wave iv some kind of triangle. Expect some test at the 5100's and then some pullback until the 4800's.

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SPX daily update


At short term looks (cash chart) wave iv is still underway but as i sayed at July 16 this principal wave (i or a) may will finish at 95x's. If this occurs the wave ii or b may will do 50 % Fibonacci retracement and the gap between 905-912 will not filled.

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Good Weekend

Saturday, July 18, 2009


Finally weekend... :))))))) During this weekend i'll update my SPX and DAX charts, but until now i don't see any reason to change my counts (today i don't have any doubts that SPX is at wave iv rose as i showed in my last update).

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Friday, July 17, 2009


Today SPX seems doing another triangle. If this count is correct SPX will do another higher high and the H&S at DAX is not valid.

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DAX intraday update (Part 2)


Possible H&S's.

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DAX intraday update


Seems another triangle for DAX and SPX. Until now didn't have time to revew my count in DAX.

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SPX daily update


Don't change my count since my last update but still have doubts if this first wave i of Z had finished.

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SPX intraday update (Part 2)

Thursday, July 16, 2009


These waves (rose and orange) need confirmation (see the big picture of this wave on last update).

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)


My two cents for SPX.

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)


Possible bearish wedge or ending diagonal at DAX. Latter i will try show the complete count for DAX.

EDIT: Not valid bearish wedge.

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SPX daily update


These last two days remember me the beginning of wave P2 (in March), so for now, we must respect the bull and follow the trend (or if you are bear like me stay out). Due this day i made some changes in my last update. Hope everbody had survived this short squeeze and are all right.

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SPX and DAX intraday update

Wednesday, July 15, 2009


Huge short squeeze and the bull is back! Until the sessions end i didn't see any bearish signs. Latter i will do my updates.

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SPX intraday update (Part 2)

New trend started (wave Z) so new highs will be made during the next weeks. In short term i still don't see any bearish signs.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)


Possible bearish wedge.

EDIT: Not bearish wedge but maybe SPX is doing iii or v of final v.

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)



Today is the day... or we started new uptrend with new highs or we have a mini crash. Despite this i expected sell off during the afternoon.

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SPX daily update


Nothing new to say. Expect for tomorrow gap up and then sell off.

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SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Tuesday, July 14, 2009




Possible future patterns in short term for SPX.

My primary count SPX is doing a triangle and then will make one last impulsive wave. Alternative counts are: (a) bearish wedge or ending diagonal; (b) began now wave iii of this last impulsive wave.

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)


Dangerous zone for the bears.

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SPX daily update



At my first chart you can see my primary count with some comments. The last chart is my alternative count.

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SPX intraday update (Part 4)

Monday, July 13, 2009


Maybe very close to finished this wave ii.

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SPX intraday update (Part 3)


Hard to count these corrective waves. Wainting for bearish signs and patterns.

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SPX intraday update (Part 2)


Gap up and then in a middle of the day a good sell off (I hope :))

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DAX intraday update (Part 2)




It is very hard to label these waves but i'm still bearish in short time frame.

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SPX and DAX intraday update (Part 1)

Since the lows of this morning both indices maybe are doing a bearish wedge. Latter i show my charts for the short term.

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Good Weekend

Saturday, July 11, 2009


Time to rest and stay with family. Hope everybody also rest and enjoy the weekend.

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SPX intraday update (Part 2)

Friday, July 10, 2009


Still very choppy for wave iii so this is my best count. Until above the 869 this will be my primary count.

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SPX and DAX intraday (Part 1)

Until new lows i will retain my last updates.

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DAX intraday update (Part 1)


My two cents for DAX.

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SPX daily update


Today i stay a little more bearish than yesterday after the markets close. The big picture is still uncertainty but today i will prevail the bear count.


At short term seems for the bear case it's missing wave c to complete this (small) rebound. For the bull case maybe is possible a good rally For now i prefer the bear case.

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Disclaimer

The opinions listed on this blog are of the author only, and shall not be deemed as financial advice, or any other sort of advice. All visitors to the blog should do their own research before making any decisions. This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses any one might sustain from the content provided. Author is not a registered financial advisor. Author does not engage in dispensing financial advice.

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