It was difficult to count waves, during these last two weeks, but finally we have an impulsive wave. All the best in this weekend and hope that you are prepared this upcoming big wave. During the weekend i will do the respective updates but until then listen this beautiful song from Portugal.
DAX must fall fast and harder to invalidate this "ending diagonal triangle".
This is my preferencial count due the trend line was broken so i think we maybe started the wave iii. However, i will wainting values above the X wave.
So... maybe is also only a (b) wave of this last movement and SPX may finished this wave near os 88x's (if c=a).
On other hand, in cash, SPX maybe will do H&S.
I see alot waves interceptions so i think this is only a corrective wave. But if we broke consistely the 848 points mayby i must chanche my count.
Looks like a corrective wave and similar that i showed last night.
I think in DAX we will see the wave iv during the morning of tomorrow.
SPX may extend a little more this upside wave. The fall before the close seams more corrective and typical of wave iv. In this wave iv i made two possible counts but i prefer the abcde count because usually these kind of waves are more complex. Possible final target of this upside (wave ii) about 88x-89x points.
These days my head fells like a washing machine...
but when the bulls play with triangles and corrective combinations can be caught!!!
Sometimes if you don't understand Elliott waves or they are too choopy is better follow the channel. Try to see the futures, cfd's and cash to have a better "image" of the markets.
DAX is doing, also, some kind of a corrective combination.
The markets are still very choppy but i think the final target of this wave ii will be between 860 (second picture) or 890 points (first picture).
These last days have been, in my opinion, alot confused and complexed. The waves are always intercepted and make the counts very difficult. However, i made two possible counts, but when the market made this kind of movements i prefer stay away and waint to see what happens.
I need more data to understand this last movement but the last count is invalidated.
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I didn't expect this for SPX but if we had a higher high is because we are on wave ii.
As expected, SPX reacted badly to the 93x's. I expected, like DAX, new lows during this week.
Dax is doing some kind of "ending diagonal triangle". So, i expect new lows during this week.
Hard week for the bull and bears with a lot of volatility and uncertainty. I hope next week everything is more clarified. During the weekend i will do my updates.
The count is complicated but i don't believe that wave ii is already finished. So, maybe SPX still in wave iv of principal i doing some kind of triangle.
Similar count to DAX and be careful for the possible triangle. If DAX broke the trend lines (support or resistence) the movement may accelerate.
Another difficult and complicated day for the bulls. When everybody expected rises for today, SPX decided counteract. During all day i thought, everything's normal, despite the high retracement, but the reaction after the test of the 839 points made me think about it. For this reason i will show two possible counts and beware the possible triangle that can be being drawn.
DAX had done already the principal wave (A) and is doing the principal wave (B). Maybe this principal wave will be on 3-3-5. I don't think that this uptrend had finished.
DAX already made 5 waves so i think this is the wave (b) of ii.
My two cents for DAX. I strongly believe that this wave (a) will be at 12345 but everthing is possible.
The spx made only a lower low with 0.6 points. I expected a new lower low in the futures, but it went against my will. To help the "party", i didn't noticed the micro wave iv of the final v and the consolidation at 810-816 points also didn't help me. When i arrived home my stop was already activated and the "picture" become more clear.
Sorry guys. Today, i'm sad because not only i wanted long in this uptrend, but also, and the most important, because i didn't had the correct vision of the markets.
Yes i find it and it's confirm. We are now on sub iii of "a" of "ii" of this uptrend. Latter i will do the respective chart.
Wave i = 803 - 817
Wave ii = 817 -810
Wave iii = 810 - ?
So, it seems that we are already in wave ii of this principal downtrend. At night i will recount again. The charts today are very choopy.
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Choopy day and maybe is doing something like that. Those Figures shows one corrective combination in a bull market and don't forget that we are in a bear market.
My count was invalidated. I will buy calls on next retracement with stop on 804 points. The donwtrend is over? This wave v will be extensive? I need more data to have those questions.
EDIT: This for me is not a impulsive wave so i will keep my puts. As Sulla said maybe is a complexe corrective wave.
Onother alternative count to DAX. However, i prefer the last nigth count and the uptrend is began.
EDIT: Alternative count invalidated.
No chart but DAX is already on micro v of sub v of principal i. Mabybe will extend and finished near of 4000 points.
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The last micro wave iii of v seems to me somewhat compressed, so i will not surprise if extends a litle more.
So, after all by my count is still missing two micro waves to this downtrend ends.
Choppy day but i think today this downtrend can be finished.
EDIT: Forget the last picture because the target was alredy made as you can see in this new picture. The downtrend maybe will finish today because this last wave v is on abcde (ending diagonal triagle).
The waves are overlap and turn the count more difficult. However this is my chart.
As DAX made a new lower low i had changed my count. During the weekend i suspected that SPX was not in wave ii and now because of DAX i'm more convinced that is yet in sub wave iv of principal i of this downtrend.
DAX had made a new lower low and i told you yesterday that the friday's increase were suspicious. So, i made a new count, as i don't believe that already we are in the wave iii of this downtreand.
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