Friday, August 21, 2009
I think this is the count. The strength of the market suggests a blue wave 3 and yesterdays corrective movement suggests another irregular correction for blue wave 2 with pink "a"="b".
Best to your trading
PH
Testing the highs
In the sequence of previous post, here it is. Channel broken and highs being tested, that should origin a little pullback and then... rock and roll baby.
Best to your trading
PH
Be very careful for tomorrow!
Hello friends. Yesterday's movement was indeed impulsive, and after that (almost 38,2%) correction, we should be impulsing as well. The thing is that today's movement was series of overlapped waves that makes absolutely no sense for who's expecting a third wave, usually the strongest of the impulsive movement.
Looking for confirmation on the other indexes, i was confronted with a Dow and a Nasdaq that did not brake out a descending channel from the highs. Also Nikkei 225 appears to be resuming the down correction movement with tranquility...
I made an alternative count and covered my long positions for now, better a small profit then a loss. It's a 50/50 scenario and that gives me no comfort. Confirmation comes with those channels broken and with the highs being tested. If this more bear count comes to reality, we should be smelling SPX 960 in a blink of an eye. Sorry for the testament.
Best to your trading
PH
SPX 10 min
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Hi friends.
I've been monitoring spx in detail to look for a sweet spot to enter with my last 25% position. Did not work for half a point or something. Once the job is done, i decided to post it here. For now, everything seems to align with our recent posts. Yesterday's move looks really impulsive.
Best to your trading
PH
SPX daily update
Appears wave B already finished today in cfd's charts.
Now, C waves usually respects certain Fibonacci ratios based on A price movement. With that in mind the final targets for this final wave C of Z can be:
Wave C of Z = 0.618*a = 1070 points;
Wave C of Z = a = 1127 points;
Wave C of Z = 1.618*a = 1218 points.
Nasdaq corrective pattern seems to be done
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Hello there.
Let's talk about irregular correction ABC's. An irregular correction is when the "b" wave tops higher then previous wave "a" high. This is a perfect bull trap because when we think the market will move higher, he starts correcting on a tremendous "c" wave down.
Now, "c" waves usually respects certain Fibonacci ratios based on "a" price movement. It can be:
c = a
c = 1,618*a
c = 2,618*a
With that in mind and assuming that the nasdaq is making an irregular corrective abc, with a little math c = 1,618*a=75,07 points. the market has done 76,4... pretty close.
Best to your trading
PH
Dow Transportation and Nasdaq 100 update
Hi friends. Had to change my count for a little more bear view. The "respectable" channel was seriously violated, and for now i anticipate at least one more leg down.
Don't get fooled. Primary trend is still up so i won't recommend any kind of short positions in this market. I think 38% fibo around 62,50 may be a sweet spot to start taking long positions again.
Same goes to Nasdaq. If my wave degrees were correct we should resume the trend shortly. If not, then blue is rose and rose is yellow, meaning that we could hit the 50 or the 61,8 fibo next week.
Best to your trading
PH Read more...
SPX daily update
Todays action seems like a small correction wave since the yesterday lows. So at least i expected one test until 96x's-97x's.
SPX daily update
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
After some hard weeks, finally the wave patterns were more clear and suggest one flat wave in this wave B.
If you like this chart: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAPt-zBZht5M_SlhWLiDH8hyphenhyphenHN_s5Y4pB2NjsOaLcMaSIIlWoIvu_C7ulPpVHYcEhay5W-SxYvJWGRQP0__xJ3E5RKJh7mUha9F-yoiOdzXGL4q_voDXzScsvtWX0npTTpTUodY285OOcM/s1600-h/spx-1.jpg it's possible the top were already made at 1018. However, for now i will prefer count this wave as "B" (the label suggests a corrective wave) and waiting for one last wave "C" to finished this rally since the March lows.
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