Elliott Market Waves

SPX daily update

2012-01-25T01:38:00.000Z

Following my last chart nothing changed and SPX is following wave 3 (primary count; green) or wave C (alternative count; red).

SPX daily update

2011-12-28T02:12:00.002Z

At long term nothing had changed, so these charts are and these still valid!
At medium term nothing had changed, so these charts are and these still valid!

At short term SPX the picture is not clear but seems the bears are in trouble.

SPX daily update

2011-11-23T02:02:00.002Z

SPX daily update

2011-11-17T23:15:00.000Z

My triangle failure but I still see a (different) triangle.

SPX daily update

2011-11-17T01:27:00.000Z

Following my last updates...

SPX daily update

2011-11-14T02:10:00.002Z

Possible triangle underway!

SPX daily update

2011-11-10T01:14:00.000Z

Do you remember this update????

The charts still the same at the medium term. Seems the bearish option is more credible but yhe bullish option is still possible.

SPX daily update

2011-10-18T01:02:00.001+01:00

At short term I expect a pullback!

Elliott waves at short, medium and long term.

2011-10-10T23:22:00.002+01:00

At this time, as you know, I considerate wave B finished at long term.

At medium term wave c of B finished with truncation (yes I'm still hate truncations) and wave C is underway.

So (again) at long and medium term the bears are in control.

At short term wave i of (a) of C finished and wave ii is underway. This wave can be strong and will be the last hope for the bull.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-10-05T20:26:00.000+01:00

Since yesterday lows SPX made already 5 waves to the upside.

SPX daily update

2011-10-05T01:31:00.002+01:00

SPX daily update

2011-10-04T00:48:00.000+01:00

Possible bullish wedge at this last wave 5!

SPX daily update

2011-09-30T02:03:00.000+01:00

Correctives waves still underway at the both sides so the two options showed on my last "SPX daily update" are in play!

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

2011-09-27T19:03:00.002+01:00

Possible count at short term.

SPX daily update

2011-09-27T15:33:00.003+01:00

Two options to followed!

SPX daily update

2011-09-22T00:16:00.001+01:00

Several options are still in the table but with this time action I began to like these options for the short, medium term.
For now, the sellers are in control so the bulls must have cautions.

SPX daily update

2011-09-16T00:22:00.000+01:00

Until now SPX only made 3 waves to the downside.
So at medium and short term the both counts (bearish and bullish) are still valid.

SPX daily update

2011-09-14T02:11:00.002+01:00

At short term seems wave iv still underway.

SPX daily update

2011-09-12T01:55:00.001+01:00

At short term the odds suggest wave v is underway.

SPX daily update

2011-09-06T02:13:00.000+01:00

After 1 month my last update is still underway! Despite this, at short term I expect SPX again below the 10xx's.

Holidays End!

2011-09-02T23:47:00.000+01:00

Today it's finished my holidays.
Next week I return with my SPX updates.
Have a good weekend!

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-08-24T17:05:00.003+01:00

We may have finished wave 2. Lets see if we get a lower low

Good Luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-08-18T21:32:00.003+01:00

we didn't hit the price objective in this wave, so i expect that in the next we will get it and more.

Good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-08-17T11:56:00.002+01:00

could it be?

Good luck

spx - cash - update

2011-08-13T17:56:00.004+01:00

following last cash updates (here and here), here is a quick update just to bring to the table the "dead cross".
I dont expect that we try to get the MM20 in the iv of 3 of I. I expect that attempt in the 4 of I.

Good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-08-11T20:34:00.004+01:00

lets see if it ends here or try to get higher prices

good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-08-10T20:10:00.003+01:00

following last night update.
Trying to count this IV.

Good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-08-09T20:55:00.002+01:00

Good luck

SPX - by moguita

2011-08-08T21:00:00.003+01:00

one poor atempt to count this

Good luck

Take the money and run...

2011-08-06T22:42:00.002+01:00

Take the money an run

Who's in bunker, who's in bunker?
Women and children first
Women and children first
Women and children
I'll laugh until my head comes off
I swallow till I burst
Until I burst
Until I..

Who's in bunker, who's in bunker
I've seen too much
I haven't seen enough
You haven't seen enough
I'll laugh until my head comes off
Women and children first
And children first
And children..

Here I'm allowed, everything all of the time
Here I'm allowed, everything all of the time

Ice age coming, ice age coming
Let me hear both sides
Let me hear both sides
Let me hear both..

Ice age coming, ice age coming
Throw me in the fire
Throw me in the fire
Throw me in the..

We're not scaremongering
This is really happening, happening
We're not scaremongering
This is really happening, happening

Mobiles working
Mobiles chirping
Take the money and run
Take the money and run
Take the money..

Here I'm allowed, everything all of the time
Background:
The first of the children

SPX daily update

2011-08-05T02:16:00.001+01:00

At long term nothing changed....SPX is still in huge triangle. This triangle at this moment still may have different patterns.

So at medium term my count still the same and follows this possible triangle.

My alternative count at medium term shows the top was made and follows this triangle.

At short term, once the triangle was invalidated, SPX is labelling some wave iii. So, at this moment the bulls are in danger!

SPX daily update

2011-08-04T20:48:00.001+01:00

At this point and after some weeks follow the same count, I must changed after this sell off. At medium term I will keep counting this wave as "wave X".
At short term I will follow this like "flat wave". Now SPX is under wave iii of wave C. So at short term the donwtrend will continue. As I'm on holidays, latter I will try show this chart.

SPX daily update

2011-08-03T02:18:00.000+01:00

At this point I can't see any reason to change my counts at short and medium term cause wave's E may extended a little more! Don't forget that I'm follow this pattern since some weeks ago!

SPX daily update

2011-07-29T01:48:00.000+01:00

Following my last updates....

SPX daily update

2011-07-28T02:22:00.000+01:00

At medium term my primary count still the same.

At short term seems wave C of E is underway and SPX may will test the 125x's.

Alternative count at short term is wave E of X already finished (with an incomplete ppatern) and SPX is labelling wave 2 of Y.

P.S. I'm on hollidays so today I can't show my charts....So tomorrow I will show it.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-07-19T13:05:00.000+01:00

Didn't expect this rebound...so at short term I changed my count.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-07-15T13:08:00.002+01:00

Following my last update....

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

2011-07-14T18:31:00.000+01:00

If SPX is still at wave B, maybe is labbeling a descending triangle.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-07-14T17:46:00.000+01:00

Wave b underway labelling a triangle.

SPX daily update

2011-07-13T23:50:00.000+01:00

After today's session I changed my count at short term. So, wave A already finished and wave B is underway (triangle option) or already finished with a single ABC.

At medium term everthing stills the same.

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

2011-07-13T01:37:00.002+01:00

Following my last updates, this chart shows my primary count at short term.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-07-12T17:49:00.001+01:00

At this point, and following my last chart, SPX is labelling wave iv of wave a of e.

Latter I will show my primary count.

Still expect values below the 13xx's.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-07-07T17:59:00.000+01:00

Following my last updates I expect the return of the sellers and SPX again at 12xx's.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-07-06T15:54:00.003+01:00

Following my last two updates and chart...Not sure if wave d of this big triangle already finished. If already finished, the 12xx's points will be visited again!

SPX - by moguita

2011-06-30T16:51:00.003+01:00

And i have a alternative count to Filipe's one. ;)
This patern (as far as i can see) goes for every index. I have a alternative to this alternative: since we hit the 50% retracement to the drop from the top, this could be a 2º wave.

PS: we are back testing the neck line of the H&S and de MM50 in the cash

Good luck

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-06-30T15:17:00.001+01:00

My last update showed that the key at short term was 1303 points. Yesterday the SPX closed above this value... So at short term, the alternative count is underway. I will show my chart latter.

SPX daily update

2011-06-29T01:29:00.002+01:00

My big picture and medium term count still the same. Despite this, at short term I have Moguita's similar count but my alternative count suggests SPX is labelling a mayor triangle in this wave X.

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-06-25T19:10:00.002+01:00

Here are my counts.
My favourite one: we already have i and ii of 3, now a big drop.
second: we already have 1,2,3 and 4, now five waves down
third: we end 4 wave next monday and then 5 waves down

Good luck

SPX intraday update - Big Picture

2011-06-16T15:12:00.000+01:00

At long term I still believe SPX is inside a triangle. So the better count at medium term to show this picture is SPX is labelling an double zig zag at this mayor wave C or A.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-06-16T14:59:00.001+01:00

At short term the SPX only made 3 waves to the downside. Besides this at medium term began to lose confidance in my medium term count...I will see another possibilities.

SPX daily update

2011-06-13T02:24:00.000+01:00

After these last days, is still difficult count this sell off as the begin of an announced mayor correction.

My mind is stuck in this chart, cause last high was made by an abc pattern.
Alternative count (bear option) was showed by Moguita.

SPX CFD's / Cash - moguita

2011-06-10T21:29:00.003+01:00

A mix ;)

Everything in his right place...so far
we still need to break the 1250 level
Had a nice week-end

Good luck

SPX - by moguita

2011-06-03T22:07:00.003+01:00

couldnt resist ;)

spx - cash - update

2011-06-03T21:17:00.003+01:00

just a quick update to the post from 13/May

have a nice weekend

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-06-03T14:07:00.002+01:00

is this one for real?

Good luck

SPX daily update

2011-06-03T02:13:00.002+01:00

SPX - update

2011-06-01T17:31:00.003+01:00

wich one?
or like last time?...none...
for now? No one's land

Good luck

SPX daily update

2011-06-01T01:39:00.005+01:00

Last update and chart is still valid. So my primary count suggest that an ending diagonal is underway!

SPX daily update

2011-05-27T00:52:00.002+01:00

Back again on business :). After some weeks, at medium term, everthing still the same.

So, I still expected new highs at short term. This last wave (5) seems very choopy and is labbeling a bearish weadge pattern.

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-05-26T00:04:00.003+01:00

A slight change in the leading diagonal since last update.
We are in a very important point, market is testing (trying to breach) the LTD that lasts for 9 months. The EUR/USD is also flirting with the possible neck line (see last update).
If we breach down this levels market could move fast, so , if this count is correct tomorrow we must see a sell-off.

Good luck

EUR/USD

2011-05-23T10:26:00.003+01:00

Quick look.
Looks perfect...for now
Good luck

PS: don't forget the possibility of a trap

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-05-18T21:21:00.001+01:00

Good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-05-16T21:56:00.003+01:00

Looks like we had another H&S trap. To be a real one i expected a test to 1340 level and then a rally up, but 1340 didn't hold.
Next days should be interesting...

Good luck

SPX - by moguita

2011-05-13T21:13:00.003+01:00

A diferent chart today. Is the weekly
At the bottom of 2009 we had a bullish "engulfing" pattern. Now we have a bearish "piercing" line.
Now we are seeing a series of bearish divergencies similar to the bullish ones in 2009, but we still need to break the 1250 level to a confirmation.

Good luck

SPX daily update

2011-05-11T00:39:00.001+01:00

Looks like wave e or v is underway. Expect new highs at short term.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-05-06T18:56:00.001+01:00

Not sure if wave d or iv from last chart already finished. Maybe today's gap was wave b of d or iv.

More charts during this weekend.

SPX daily update

2011-05-03T23:49:00.001+01:00

Following one of my last charts I believe wave c or iii is still underway!

EDIT: I want to sayed wave d or iv and not wave c or iii.

SPX daily update

2011-05-03T01:34:00.001+01:00

Following my last charts seems wave iii or c finished today so I expected some pullback at short term. Tomorrow I will show my charts at medium and short term.

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-04-28T22:18:00.005+01:00

A diferent long term view. Mine, not Filipe's. The weekly MACD is still red...

Still a possible H&S trap. Be carefull
we should expect a retrace to 1340 and a "hold" if the H&S is true

good luck

PS: i'll be out till 09/05

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-04-20T15:54:00.001+01:00

These last days my job is killing me... Despite this, nothing changed since I showed my last updates.

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-04-20T15:47:00.003+01:00

we had a "H&S trap".
We need to see 5 waves from 1294 to rule out the truncation 5 or the abc down for a large C (Alternative count in blue).
another alternative (not on this chart) in that a 5 waves up from 1294 will finish C wave for a final Z wave from 1007. This cenario coul bring a "inverted H&S trap".

Good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-04-18T18:39:00.001+01:00

not much to add

good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-04-15T15:42:00.001+01:00

H&S or inverted one?
for now i'll keep the 1-2 count

Good Luck

SPX - by moguita

2011-04-12T17:06:00.003+01:00

Alternative count to Filipe ending diagonal (not sure if wave one was a leading diagonal).
Red is the primary one ;) and blue secundary.
Against the red one, is the fact that futures didn't made new high in 08/04, like did cash. So, it may turn out to be an abc down.
The INDU did hit a new high, for that reason i'm considering a possibility of a truncation

Good luck

PS: We don't need no IMF
We don't need no thought control... lala lala-la la-la-lala

SPX daily update

2011-04-11T22:52:00.001+01:00

Following my last update these choppy waves sugest wave 5 may underway (primary count). At this point wave 4 from this update don't make sence cause the time action,

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-04-07T15:13:00.000+01:00

Choppy waves during these last days sugesting wave 4 is still underway or wave 5 is labeling an ending diagonal or a bearish weadge.

FC PORTO 2010 - 2011: CAMPEÕES!!

2011-04-04T21:43:00.001+01:00

SPX daily update

2011-04-04T17:15:00.001+01:00

This sideway suggest wave 4 is underway, labbeling a triangle.

SPX daily update

2011-04-01T18:45:00.000+01:00

Nothing changed since my last update. At short term I'm not sure if SPX is still labeling wave 4 or already is at wave 5.

EUR/USD

2011-04-01T18:23:00.003+01:00

For now, i'm counting this move since last summer as a double ZZ

Last call was completely wrong, and the movement from last month was very hard to do.

I expect more clear signs to put a confident count

Good luck

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-30T16:54:00.004+01:00

Eureka.... Finally I feel more confident with my count at short term. This count made change my count at medium term. These last days I tried to avoid showing my count but now I'm sure and (after all) SXP is still underway wave 5 of C at the big picture (Count 1 or count 2).

At short term I believe at new highs and it's possible an inverted H&S is underway. So, I expect this trend, since 2010, will last more some months.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-29T17:50:00.003+01:00

The bulls are still in control. Despite the choppy waves I expect new highs.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-28T14:19:00.000+01:00

Seems SPX is labelling a triangle. I still expect higher prices.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-25T15:25:00.002Z

I still don´t see any reason to short at this point. Chart soon.
EDIT:

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-24T16:11:00.000Z

Don't feel secure with these waves. SPX is an important horizontal resistance area. So I don't expect higher values than 1320 points.

SPX intraday update (Part 3)

2011-03-23T17:24:00.003Z

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

2011-03-23T16:33:00.000Z

Since last update SPX only made an abc. So seems wave X didn't finish at 1300. These corrective waves are hard to count :(.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-23T13:08:00.002Z

Not sure but following these two charts (1 and 2) I will say wave X already finished.

SPX intraday update (Part 3)

2011-03-22T16:33:00.003Z

Triangle is still possible.

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

2011-03-22T15:07:00.001Z

Expect some reaction at this area!

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-22T13:00:00.002Z

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-21T14:31:00.000Z

Nothing changed since my last update. Looking for the end of X's wave.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-18T16:36:00.002Z

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

2011-03-18T16:06:00.000Z

Hard to count these messy waves. After some introspection I will follow (again) my primary count at long term. So the best count at medium term shows SPX is labelling a double zig zag at this wave 2. At short term I'm not feel confidante to show any chart.

SPX - by moguita

2011-03-17T10:06:00.003Z

just before Homer get back...
following last update. Still inside the channel. Now looking for the end of 3
Good luck

I fell like....

2011-03-17T09:23:00.001Z

Homer Simpson after some days with out any update! Today I will do my homework and show my charts.

SPX - by moguita - update2

2011-03-16T20:41:00.003Z

my best try for another move down to finish iii (red).
i see too many people expecting this to retrace hard...hummm
keep an open mind (the tragedy in Japan don't give me any bull hope)

good luck

SPX - by moguita - update

2011-03-16T18:55:00.003Z

following yesterday's count.
The move from 1288 to 1248 looks like a triple zz (v?)
expect a move till 1298 and then a more impulsive wave

Good luck

SPX - by moguita

2011-03-15T19:00:00.001Z

Possible bearish count. 1294 must be untouch

good luck

SPX daily update

2011-03-11T00:19:00.001Z

Some problems this week prevented me from doing any update. I will keep the bullish count as my primary despite the today's sell off. Expect some reaction at this values (129x's) or at 127x's.